What to watch for: Raptors Season Opener

Setting expectations and an outline for success

The Raptors season begins on Wednesday, October 25th, so I wanted to go through the things I want to see from the team in general and against the TimberWolves specifically. This outline can be a useful tool to help analyze the game as you watch along!

General Outlook and Analysis:

Starting Lineup:

PG - Dennis Schröder
SG - O.G. Anunoby
SF - Scottie Barnes
PF - Pascal Siakam
C - Jakob Poeltl

Bench:

6 - Gary Trent Jr.
7 - Precious Achiuwa
8, 9, 10 - Any of Chris Boucher, Jalen McDaniels, Otto Porter Jr, Malachi Flynn, Gradey Dick

Overarching Expectations:

1. Offensive start:

   The Raptors will likely start each game throwing the ball to Poeltl at the elbow and then running a series of dribble hand-offs and screening actions. The goal of this will be to either find a driving lane to create pressure on the rim or a post mismatch for their forwards to attack. With limited play time together due to Poeltl’s illness in the preseason, it will be interesting to see how quickly they can get into their offence. Specifically it should be noted how long it takes for them to get either a paint touch, or below the free throw line on offence. If they manage either with more than 12 seconds remaining on the clock I think that will be a good sign of their offensive flow.

2. Willingness to shoot:

   We’ve already seen in preseason how the offence has created much more player movement and passing, however with all these intricate passing sequences it is important that whichever player ends up with the open shot is willing to shoot. Barnes, Siakam, Achiuwa, and Boucher will all likely find themselves open for 3 throughout the game as teams help off them to protect the rim. A pass heavy offence can create the shots, but it they aren’t attempted it just becomes a waste of time. If they choose not to shoot, they will have to be aggressive attacking off the catch to make something of the space the defence is giving them.

3. Bench turnovers:

   Rajakovic is likely to play mixed lineups with the Bench, with either Barnes, or Siakam to help guide the offence. Without a true backup point guard, and with Precious Achiuwa being the backup Centre tasked with decision making for the bench offence, his ability to move from action to action on offence and make passing and screening decisions will dictate how smoothly the bench will run. In Preseason we saw the bench struggle when Chris Boucher and Thad Young were tasked in that role leading to a number of unforced turnovers. Keeping turnovers to a minimum while maintaining the new approach to offence will be very important. Comparing Assists to Turnovers, and Assists to made shots will be good indicators, however even if the Raptors find themselves in a drought, you can tell if it's good process if the shots are coming directly from a pass rather than if they are being forced up after creating off the dribble.

4. Paint Defence:

   The Raptors under Rajakovic are moving to a more conservative approach on defence. Against teams with traditional bigs expect Poeltl to be in the paint more often, however against teams with playmaking bigs that will pull Poeltl to the perimeter, it will be interesting to see how well the Raptors communicate their help to ensure it is one of their big forwards helping at the rim, rather than their small guards. Overall look to see if Raptor players defending at the wings are helping at the elbows on drives or if they are staying to their man. This type of help was common under Nick Nurse but less so under their new defensive approach, so this will dictate how far along they are in grasping their new principles. Similar to on offence, restricting the other team’s paint touches early on in the shot clock will be crucial. Finally with a more conservative approach and less switching, the Raptors bigger players should be in better rebounding position, thus should be limiting offensive rebounds.

5. Turning stops into transition:

   With Barnes, Siakam, Anunoby, Schröder and Achiuwa the Raptors have a multitude of players that can grab and go and push in transition. How effectively they can turn stops and rebounds into fast breaks will be key for them. Early in the season I will be more focused on seeing how often they can initiate transition, rather than how well they convert. The end goal will be that they convert these opportunities at a high level as well.

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Opening Night: Oct 25th Timberwolves at Raptors

1. Limit Turnovers:
   The Timberwolves are a team that likes to play in transition with both Jaden McDaniels and Anthony Edwards being destructive players on the break. Last season the Wolves switched between a conservative scheme with Gobert and an aggressive scheme with Naz Reid, especially on the perimeter where they were willing to press and double ball-handlers as they aimed to force turnovers. Given the newness of the Raptors offence, It will be important for them to limit their turnovers on offence especially in the early going to keep the Wolves limited to the half court.

2. Backline Defence
   Whenever the Wolves switch to a Karl Anthony-Towns at Centre look it will be important for the Raptors backline on defence to communicate, as if Poeltl or Achiuwa is forced to defend Towns on the perimeter, this will leave the Raptors rim defence vulnerable to back-cuts. The Raptors wing defenders will have to be wary of their man off ball to avoid being back-cut, which was a point of weakness in the Preseason. Even when Naz Reid and Rudy Gobert are playing Centre, the Raptors will have to be ready to help as Anthony Edwards will be coming off the pick and roll looking to attack the rim relentlessly.

3. Rim/Paint Offence
   Gobert is one of the league’s best rim protectors, and the Raptors offence heavily relies on their big forwards relentlessly pressuring the rim. If Barnes, Siakam and Anunoby struggle to finish in the paint against Gobert, this will allow the Wolves to send less help on drives, which will stagnate the Raptors offence as shooters won’t be left open by helping Wolves defenders. The Raptors willingness to attempt shots over Gobert and finish through contact will be important in dictating how well their offence succeeds outside of transition.

4. Rebound the ball

   The Raptors won’t have to work too hard to push the pace against a team like the Wolves who themselves will be happy to play at a fast pace. The Raptors should really focus on crashing the defensive glass rather than leaking out in transition. The Wolves are a team with a lot of long athletes, and Chris Finch has stated they will try to crash the offensive glass this season to maximize their possessions, so the Raptors controlling the defensive glass will go a long way in helping them succeed. I will be looking specifically at how well the lineups with Poeltl on the bench do on the defensive glass.

Overall this should be a fun opening night game. Anthony Edwards announced his arrival as a star this summer at the FIBA World Cup, and him battling against Anunoby, Achiuwa and McDaniels throughout the night will be a fun clash of offence vs defence. The Raptors have all the bodies defensively they need to succeed against the Wolves, however it will come down to familiarity and execution on opening night for a team that is entering a new era of Raptors basketball.