Jalen McDaniels - New Raptor CheatSheet
Jalen McDaniels - New Raptor CheatSheet
Getting to know the new Raptor and what he brings to the team
The Basics:
Using the Bi-Annual Exception (BAE) the Raptors signed 6-9 Wing-Forward Jalen McDaniels. He previously played for 3.5 seasons in Charlotte before finishing his most recent season with the Philadelphia 76ers. The 25 year old comes to the Raptors profiling as an athletic wing defender who can provide low volume catch and shoot three point shooting at about league average efficiency.
The Goods:
Versatile defender, long wingspan (7ft), can guard multiple positions and has good feet on defence
Great rebounder for a forward both on the offensive and defensive glass
Reliable FT shooter (80%+) and adept at drawing fouls to get to the line (80th+ percentile in AND-1 rate last year!)
Athletic slasher, moves well off-ball and cuts to the rim with force to finish at a good rate
Knows his role offensively, 76% of his shots came from Three or in the Restricted Area (95% including non-restricted area paint shots)
The Mids
Can provide low volume catch and shoot three point shooting at average efficiency from all over the arc, not just a corner three shooter, can get streaky
Low usage role player, fits in well in most lineups
The Mehs
Three point shooting has remained inconsistent, not someone you can rely on to be a regular source of spacing in a lineup
Loose handle, per Cleaning the Glass is in the bottom quartile of Forwards when it comes to turnover rate, tends to get stuck in sticky situations when asked to do too much with the ball
Expectations and Outlook:
Overall McDaniels slots in as a backup wing for the Raptors off the bench. He has played a good chunk of minutes off the bench both in Charlotte and Philly, and has filled in as a spot starter as needed. On a Raptors team with few guards, his role may swing from playing anywhere from shooting guard to power forward off the bench depending on the configuration. He does provide a safety net in case of injury to the starters and fills in at backup small forward full time if Otto Porter Jr. is unable to stay healthy, or Precious Achiuwa struggles in adapting to a wing role and remains as a backup centre option alongside Christian Koloko.
If McDaniels is in the rotation I expect he would be playing at least 10-15 minutes a night with the upside of a 20-22 minute regular. The keys to his success as a Raptor will be in his ability to bring consistent energy on both ends, playing in transition, and as an off-ball cutter in the halfcourt. Shooting will also be key, however that goes for any of the Raptors forwards. Whichever wing/forward shows consistency as a shooter will automatically rise to the top of the bench options.
What to watch - FanCam:
In watching McDaniels, fans should keep an eye out for his urgency as an off-ball cutter, and especially how decisive he is with the ball. The more decisive he can be with the ball, the more likely he will be to find success, and the more active he is as a cutter the more likely we are to see acrobatic plays at the rim. On the defensive end he does a good job of sticking with players and getting a clean contest, with his go-to highlight play being a massive help side block from behind.
Dunks
Defence
The Nerd Stuff (Key Stats / Shooting and Defensive Analysis):
Simple Stuff:
Shot chart (per Statmuse) and Shooting Analysis:
Historical Catch and Shoot Numbers:
Jalen’s shot chart last year lines up with a prototypical 3&D wing, almost entirely taking his shots from the painted area or the three point line. Unfortunately he was also at or below league average from everywhere on the floor, even from the left and right corners where he shot 33.3% and 35.9% respectively. He was above average from the top of the arc where he went 13/27 from the floor, however it’s a small sample, and functionally not a spot he is most likely to get shots from when he is off-ball on offence.
That being said, he improved his free throw shooting this past season to 84%, and he is now 78% from the free throw line for his career. Last season 52 players shot 84% with at least 100 FTA’s, and the median player in this group shot 37.1% from three point range. Amongst forwards only DeMar DeRozan and Khris Middleton shot worse from three than Jalen McDaniels in this group.
Historically FT% has correlated positively with 3P%, and as Jalen has shown the ability to improve his free throw shooting, there is hope that his three point shooting, especially in catch and shoot scenarios where he is taking set shots, will also show improvement. For what it’s worth, Jalen did manage to close last season shooting 40% in 24 games with the 76ers, so his most recent results have definitely been the most positive.
Role Specific Shooting Analysis:
Three point shooting will be a swing skill for Jalen, however it won’t be an absolute necessity for him to be a plus player on the floor. In his role off-ball, Jalen will most likely be taking catch and shoot three pointers, at which he has historically been passable level at best. I analyzed his shooting over the past two years segmented by number of attempts. While it is hard to draw concrete conclusions from smaller samples (major small sample size warning), the thought process here is to try and understand how Jalen shot in different contexts to determine what roles he can fill in particular lineups.
3 point shooting over the last 2 seasons: (3PA = Three Point Attempts)
1. Low minute role player, in case of emergency spacer (ex. Thad/Precious/Boucher)
2. Bench shooter/spacer (ex. Will Barton)
3. High volume shooter (ex. Gary/O.G.)
Often as a low minute role player you are required to be in rhythm when called upon. Jalen showed in 28 games where he averaged 16.2 minutes, he shot 42.9% in the scenarios where he only got one chance at taking a three point attempt. This may show Jalen as being a good support player in lineups where there are other shooters and he is more required to shoot when open, but not necessarily someone you are drawing up a play to create an open three for. In this small sample he has done a great job in the past 2 years.
The second scenario is where a role player is used specifically in lineups as a shooting option. In this situation they would be exerting more energy and playing extended bench minutes, leading to fatigue that may negatively affect shooting percentages. Conversely, a player may also be able to better find a rhythm in the game that might help their shooting numbers. In this context Jalen shot a passable 34.75% in 49 games, starting to further show the limitations in extending Jalen’s role as a shooter the team can rely on.
In the final scenario I wanted to look at games where Jalen was a high volume three point shooter (4+ attempts). In 42 such games, averaging 27.2 mins, Jalen shot just 33.51% from three. Given his career averages and the larger respective sample size for this group, this is likely the most representative of his shooting ability overall, while also showing his limitations as a shooting replacement in the starting lineup for Gary or O.G. if needed.
Overall, the Raptors would likely find some difficulty in using Jalen in any lineup where he is expected to be one of the two best shooters on the court. That’s not to say those lineups would not be successful, however it likely won’t be because of Jalen’s shooting ability. He does seem to show flashes of being a good shooter in the NBA, and the hope will be that he can continue to improve, with his streaky shooting managing to turn a few games in the Raptors favour.
Defensive Analysis (per Cleaning The Glass):
Going over his defensive metrics from Cleaning The Glass, Jalen has consistently been amongst the top quartile at his position in both offensive and defensive rebounding. He has also been amongst the best at his position in block % the past two seasons, and this past season also became one of the top steal % forwards in the league. This showcases his high energy, high activity play style and how effective it is at producing rebounds and turnovers.
Qualitatively, in watching McDaniels play he is very good at moving his feet to stay with his assignment and shows comfort switching on to guards on the perimeter. He does a fantastic job of staying in front, while also utilizing his length well to contest from behind whenever he gets beat for position, as well as to reach in and poke the ball loose for steal opportunities.
While I’m not the biggest fan of On-Off metrics given how dependent they are on the quality of a team’s relative lineups, we can look at this for general trends. In looking at the historical On-Off numbers, lineups with Jalen McDaniels have often been better than those without him, especially on the defensive end, in three of his four NBA seasons. One consistent factor which is relevant to the Raptors is Jalen’s ability to create turnovers. While the Raptors under Darko Rajakovic may be moving away from Nick Nurse’s hyper aggressive defensive philosophy, for a team full of athletes with less than amazing shooting, getting turnovers and getting out in transition is definitely still a major plus. Therefore Jalen should be a welcome addition on the defensive end in many contexts.
Verdict on Role and Path to Success:
Jalen’s role would be as an athletic 3&D wing who provides aggressive defence, high energy activity on both ends, and someone who can help the Raptors offence in the halfcourt with timely cuts, aggression on the offensive glass, and in transition with his speed and athleticism. As he will primarily be off-ball his swing skill will be three point shooting, but McDaniels’ path to success on the team will be his ability to consistently change the pace of the game every time he checks in. Overall he is a fun player with some very useful skills that can help this Raptors team.