Evaluating the Toronto Raptors Starting Lineup
Evaluating the Toronto Raptors Starting Lineup
A quarter of the season in, should the Raptors tinker with their starters?
20 Games into the season at the quarter mark of the season, the Raptors sit tied for 10th in the conference with a 9-11 record. They’ve won games they should have lost, lost games they should have won, and been down and come back by double digits so often that Raptor fans could qualify sitting on their couch as intensive cardio workouts.
As the league sets the stage for the in-season tournament, the Raptors have some time off, with their next game not until Wednesday, they have 4 days of rest. Now that my own heart rate has settled after a frustrating loss to the Knicks, it seems an appropriate time to evaluate how the team has progressed in the early season, and specifically, the Raptors’ new starting lineup.
Fred VanVleet out, Dennis Schröder in, and Gary Trent Jr. who has started a majority of Raptor games over the past 2 years pinned to playing off the bench. The Raptors would say they have 6 starter quality players at the moment, but given their talent being concentrated in their 3 big wing forwards, it leaves just 2 spots for Dennis, Gary, and Jakob Poeltl. This leaves us with 3 potential starting lineups:
Dennis - O.G. - Scottie - Pascal - Jakob
Scottie - Gary - O.G. - Pascal - Jakob
Dennis - Gary - O.G. - Pascal - Scottie
For comparative purposes, we will use the lineup data from last season with Fred VanVleet (albeit under a different offensive system) as a tool to better understand how the team’s options may perform this year.
1. Current Starters
The Raptors’ starting lineup (as of 12/3/2023) has played the 2nd most possessions together of any 5-man lineup in the NBA and has a +0.3 net rating on the season in 464 possessions (per Cleaning the Glass). Not only are they the 2nd most used lineup in basketball, of the 6 lineups that have played over 400 possessions, they have the 2nd worst net rating, ahead of only the Washington Wizards. Dropping that to 300 possessions they are the 3rd worst amongst 11 teams.
All to say, 20 games in, the Raptors’ starting lineup has not been able to create the advantage they need them to, and the main area of the floor they have struggled on has been their offence.
Of the lineups mentioned previously, the Raptors' starters rank as the worst offensively, scoring a lowly 108.2 pts/poss, ranking in the 21st percentile of all lineups this season. The same lineup last season with Fred VanVleet, was a +9.1 in 625 possessions, with an offensive rating of 120.3 (per Cleaning the Glass).
The Raptors have a new coach with a new system this year, so maybe some of this is just early season rust and a result of integrating new players and concepts, so let’s take a look at some splits:
Games 1-10:
Games 11-20:
Last 5 Games (NYK, PHX, BKN, CLE, CHI):
The Raptors’ starters in the first 10 games and the last 10 games have performed similarly, with offsetting blowouts included in each dataset against the Celtics and Pistons. Looking at the past 5 games they have posted a stellar +5.7 net rating per NBA.com against solid competition, however, even this has been driven by their improved defence, not their offence, which continues to trend well below the league average of 114.7. One of the reasons for this has been their poor 3 point shooting. The Raptors’ starters are attempting 26.4 3s per 100 possessions, and shooting just 33.3% on them. This may be a function of variance, however with Anunoby (40.4%), Barnes (38.6%), and Schröder (36.0%) in the lineup, it may more have to do with how the Raptors are creating their 3s. Pascal Siakam is in a horrendous shooting slump and is shooting a third of his 3s in the 1st quarter of games, at a 15.6% clip. These would mostly be with the starting lineup, which begs the question of why a lineup with 3 shooters who are hitting 3s at a good clip is creating so many looks for Siakam. Over the past few seasons, Pascal has been one of the best on the team in setting up his teammates for open 3s by drawing help. Therefore the Raptors’ starters may be able to improve their process by playing through Pascal more often.
Overall the Raptors’ current starting lineup has remained defensively stout, however, their offensive struggles have limited their overall impact, mainly stemming from their inability to both make 3s, as well create 3s, for their best shooters.
2. Trent in for Schröder
The first option many have mentioned is to bring Gary Trent Jr. into the starting lineup to replace Schröder. This would effectively make Scottie Barnes the defacto point guard, and while Trent is historically a better 3 point shooter, the Raptors would still only have 3 shooting threats on the floor. Per Cleaning the Glass, this lineup has only managed 10 total possessions so far this season and is a +41.8 with a 160 offensive rating. Obviously not a meaningful sample size, however, the Raptors have played 58 total possessions this season with Trent Jr. as the smallest player on the floor, and are a +60.3 with a 141.4 offensive rating and an 81.0 defensive rating. Specifically, lineups with Trent as the lone guard and Jakob Poeltl at Centre have been overwhelming positives in the small sample size so far this season.
Beyond small sample size theatre, we can look at how the Raptors performed last year in lineups where Trent was the lone guard.
In 967 possessions overall the Raptors were a +6.7, and in 140 possessions with Koloko at Centre they were a +29.3! However, the suggested lineup change pairing Trent and Poeltl with the starters was a -6.2 in 129 possessions last year. It should be noted that last season’s version of Scottie Barnes was a complete non-shooter from 3, and those Poeltl lineups did suffer from poor 3 point shooting on the offensive end at just 30.3%. They did still manage to produce a stout 108.0 defensive rating with that lineup, showing that even with Trent’s weaknesses on that end, this lineup more than covered for his mistakes. Given the offensive upside, we’ve seen in the various Trent lone guard lineups, and how defensively viable pairing him with 3 forwards and Poeltl has been (70.8 defensive rating in 24 possessions this season), it may be worth turning to in hopes of sparking the Raptors’ offence.
An added benefit of this change would be letting the Raptors’ offence play more functional minutes with 3 off-ball shooters. As noted with the current starters, they are generating a lot of 1st quarter 3s for their worst shooter in Pascal Siakam. By replacing an on-ball player in Dennis Schröder, with an off-ball player in Gary Trent Jr., the Raptors may also put the ball in Pascal Siakam’s hands more often. This would mean more possessions where the starters have 3 shooters off-ball to provide spacing. While not by any means conclusive, for what it’s worth, Siakam’s usage has been higher in wins vs losses so far this season (26.8% vs 24.2%).
Playing more minutes with Pascal Siakam would also be a boon for Trent, who has feasted on passes from Siakam throughout his Raptors career. This season however they are rarely playing together, and when they are, since Siakam’s touches have come down, so too have Siakam’s passes to Trent. While the majority of Trent’s minutes with Siakam have come with a traditional point guard, the Raptors have had an offensive rating of 119.1 in 572 possessions. In the 25 possessions of Siakam and Trent with no point guard, they are at an incendiary 160.0! Again this is a tiny sample size. But more minutes for Trent and Siakam together should benefit the Raptors’ offence.
The flip side of this is having to consider the relationship of Darko Rajakovic and Dennis Schröder, and having to communicate to your very productive point guard that he should come off the bench for Trent Jr., who himself has been struggling to be productive. Not only this, but if the Raptors are still committed to making Malachi Flynn a rotation player, bringing Dennis off the bench would lead to more 2 point guard lineups. The Raptors so far this season have played 46 possessions with Schröder and Flynn as the 2 guards in the lineup, and have generally struggled to score. While a -19.6 in these alignments, the defense has held up at a 113.0 rating, indicating that maybe with a larger sample and shooting normalization this can be a lineup that is sustainable in smaller doses.
3. Poeltl to the Bench - Small Ball
The final option the Raptors have with their current roster is to go back to the pre-Poeltl trade, and start off small. There are significant caveats to doing this. First, how viable is playing Scottie Barnes extended minutes at Centre over the course of an 82 game season. Secondly, how do they manage their rotation and transitional lineups after removing a bench guard and now having to bring both Poeltl and Achiuwa off the Bench.
In terms of the lineup itself, in 42 possessions this season they are a +14.7 with a 122.3 offensive rating per Cleaning the Glass. Extending this further to Raptor lineups with Scottie Barnes on the court with no Poeltl or Achiuwa, the Raptors are +11.5 in 337 possessions with a 122.3 offensive rating. With Scottie’s leap this season on the defensive end especially, these looks become much more viable. Also with Barnes shooting 40% from 3, this lineup effectively pairs Pascal Siakam with 4 shooters to space the floor while he dominates the interior. It no surprise these lineups have worked well, but the real question isn’t if it works, but rather whether they should start.
Starting small has inherent disadvantages. You’re likely to lose tipoff, have less rim protection, and create some funky transitional lineups when bringing your bigs off the bench. Whatever offensive upside you would achieve from starting small would have to be weighed against the potential downside of some Precious and Poeltl minutes. If the argument is that Precious and Poeltl can stabilize the bench defence, then maybe it’s worth a shot. So far through 20 games, Precious at Centre has been a disaster on both ends, with the Raptors being a -14.2 in 482 possessions. Therefore pairing him with Poeltl off the bench in an attempt to shore up the defence, while playing more small-ball with the starters to improve the offence, may just be a 2 birds 1 stone situation. There haven’t been many Precious-Poeltl minutes this season, however in 165 possessions last year the pair managed a +23.1 net rating with a 136.4 offensive rating.
Darko Rajakovic has already shown a preference to close with Poeltl off the floor, and of the starters, Poeltl is averaging the least amount of playing time at 26 minutes per game. Given Darko’s relationship with Schröder, and Poeltl being well satiated with a long-term contract, it may be the easiest from a locker room standpoint to bring Poeltl off the bench. With Scottie Barnes commonly being the first sub in the game at the 4-5 minute mark, this would still allow Poeltl to come back in and play a full shift in the 1st quarter. Being paired with a point guard in Dennis Schröder with whom he’s been building strong pick-and-roll chemistry, Poeltl would still maintain his offensive impact, while providing defensive stability to the Raptors’ transitional lineups.
Whichever direction they choose, 20 games in, the Raptors are still in position to dictate how this season will end. However, with the Trade Deadline looming, key players on expiring deals, and the starting lineup still struggling on offence, it may be time to change things up, for better or for worse.