Dame Lillard Trade Saga

The price of loyalty.

The NBA trade landscape has been a buzz due to reports of the biggest breakup in sports: Damian Lillard calling it quits with loyalty. 

It has been reported that Lillard has fallen for the irresistible allure of Miami's sun-soaked beaches and is demanding a trade from the Portland Trail Blazers, specifically to the Miami HEAT.

Personally, I'm taking this breakup hard. If they can't make it work even with all the public declarations of loyalty and love, I'm not sure anyone can.

On a serious note, Lillard's trade request has raised questions about his leverage and the Blazers' approach to potential offers. While I joked about it as a romantic breakup, it's best to view it as a business venture, where both Lillard and the Blazers must prioritize their respective interests.

So, let’s break it down. 

Lillard's Priorities:

Lillard is finally prioritizing himself over his team. 

Loyalty, a cherished virtue in the world of sports, often takes a toll on players because teams are rarely loyal in return. Instead, teams exploit that loyalty for their own business interests (just ask Isaiah Thomas or DeMar DeRozan).

But now, players are awakening to their own power within the NBA, Jay-Z put it succinctly when he famously said, "I'm not a businessman, I'm a business, man." 

Players should always operate as the CEOs of their own multi-million dollar brands and make decisions that benefit themselves. For Lillard, that decision is that at 33, entering his 11th season in the NBA, he does not want to be on a rebuilding team but instead wants a chance at a title. He has also decided that Miami is where he wants to pursue that goal.

The Ebb and Flow of Player Leverage:

It's important to note that in the NBA, superstars like Damian Lillard possess a wealth of leverage that surpasses that of the average player. Their impact on team success gives them power both within the organization (with hirings and firings) and around the league to shape trade discussions. On the other hand, players with less star power, like Payton Pritchard, who reportedly asked for a trade over a month ago, often find their trade demands ignored. 

I wrote about this a year ago in my piece on player empowerment, stating that "With the advent of max salaries, stars are never fairly compensated... their play forever eclipsing the money they make. Ergo, player empowerment is less about empowering all or even most players and more about compensating superstars in a salary-cap league." You can find more on that here. 

Navigating the Player-Team Dynamic:

When trade demands are made, much of the focus is on superstars, with many criticizing them as having too much leverage and control.  But superstars rarely have the final say. 

While players do hold significant value as assets and can shake up the NBA landscape by asking out, it’s their franchise that maintains the authority to assign them to any of the other 29 teams. So, while superstars like Lillard can ask for a trade, they can’t unilaterally dictate their destination, especially not at the expense of their original team. 

Also, I’ve seen a lot of people raise concerns about how teams like the Blazers may harm their reputation among future players by their handling of Damian Lillard’s trade demands. 

That's not a real concern. Portland, like most of the league, isn't a marquee free-agent destination. If they could attract stars to Portland, Damian Lillard wouldn't be asking for a trade. Also, any concern about how Scoot Henderson might view this situation is pointless. When unrestricted free agency arrives for Henderson, he will be much more concerned with how the Blazers have treated him and the team built around him than how Dame was treated 7 years prior.

What's most important to Joe Cronin, the Blazers' general manager, is appeasing the players who are on the team, not the one asking to leave. Therefore, maximizing assets in return far outweighs the whims of a future former player. 

The Lillard-Blazers Relationship:

The Blazers have had a strong bond with Damian Lillard. He has been the face of the franchise and a leader on and off the court. He means a lot to the community, and it’s right for the Blazers to do right by him. However, doing right by Lillard doesn’t mean doing right by him at any cost. There needs to be room for compromise to find a satisfactory solution for both sides. 

General Manager's Dilemma:

Just like players, general managers should operate in their best interest. Often, that aligns with the team, the more successful an executive makes the team, the longer they’re employed. And like most of us, NBA GMs are motivated by job security.  

When breaking down the Lillard trade demand, there are two angles to look at: Joe Cronin's perspective as the Blazers' lead decision maker and the perspective of the GM looking to add Lillard.

First, Joe Cronin who joined the Blazers as the lead decision maker in December of 2021, is tasked with handling a trade demand from arguably the greatest player in franchise history all while team owner Jody Allen is reportedly looking to sell the team. 

Change in ownership is always especially rocky for management, there’s always a need to be good while making a sale, as it improves the value of the team. Damian Lillard asking out is a blow, but not one Cronin can’t recover from, provided he gets back a sizeable return. 

Kickstarting a successful rebuild trumps appeasing Damian Lillard. Cronin’s priority should be holding out for the best possible deal. 

But what if that deal never materializes? Let’s break down the second angle. 

Lillard has reportedly stated that he would only be happy as a member of the Miami Heat. Other GMs, also concerned about their own job security, shouldn't be in a rush to part with valuable assets for a potentially unhappy older player.

Assessing Lillard’s Trade Value:

So, ultimately, the Blazers have the final say on where Damian Lillard goes. 

The challenge for the Blazers lies in assessing Lillard's value across the league. Any team considering a trade for Lillard must believe that his addition can propel them into contention. They must also possess the necessary assets to make a worthwhile deal.

The Miami Heat, fresh off a Finals run, fit this criteria as contenders and have the ability to trade young players and picks. 

However, it's important to note that a three-team deal would be necessary to make this happen, as Portland isn't interested in 23-year-old G Tyler Herro. Herro would need to be rerouted to a third team for an additional unprotected first-round pick.

Miami can ultimately put together a package of up to 4 first-round picks, but the question however is, do they have to?  It’s possible that Miami believes there isn’t another team ready to outbid them. 

That could very well be true. Most teams with promising young talent aren't yet in a position to gamble on a 33-year-old guard. Similarly, most teams with championship aspirations don't have the picks and young players available for trade.

It has also been reported that Portland would like to trade Jusuf Nurkic, who has 3 years and $54 million left on his contract. Miami can absorb his contract, while many other contenders cannot.

Lillard's Trade-Off:

An important factor to consider when discussing Damian Lillard's leverage is his contract.

Bradley Beal for example had the ultimate leverage when demanding a trade, thanks in part to his contract including a No-Trade clause. However, this type of clause is incredibly rare, with only 10 players in NBA history ever having had one.

Most superstars opt for short-term contracts to maximize their control and leverage, Lillard took a different approach. In July of 2022, Lillard made a long-term commitment to the Portland Trail Blazers, signing a 2-year extension, binding himself to the team for the next four years. This decision significantly impacts his leverage in trade negotiations. When your current team fears losing you for nothing in the off-season, they’re quick to acquiesce to any trade demands. Signing on for 4 years is a perfect example of how loyalty benefits the team but not the player. 

Kevin Durant and Ben Simmons both recently demanded trades with 4 years left on their contracts, and in both instances, their respective teams held out until they received offers with a return they liked.

Conclusion:

Damian Lillard may have broken up with loyalty, but the remnants still tie him to Portland. With Dame’s eyes set on the HEAT, the Blazers are searching for something hotter. The ball is in Cronin's court, and the game is far from over.